These are excerpts from letters written to the clients of Jeetay's PMS (Portfolio Management Scheme)
 
 
 
  • 30th July 2010 -
  • “Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass.” -Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway’s 2000 Shareholder Meeting
  • 29th July 2010 -
  • “Organized common (or uncommon) sense — very basic knowledge — is an enormously powerful tool. There are huge dangers with computers. People calculate too much and think too little.” -Charlie Munger
  • 28th July 2010 -
  • “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” -Kenneth Boulding, ecological economist
  • 27th July 2010 -
  • "If everything on Earth were rational, nothing would happen." - Fyodor Dostoevsky
  • 26th July 2010 -
  • "There is no more common error than to assume that, because prolonged and accurate mathematical calculations have been made, the application of the result to some fact of nature is absolutely certain." - A.N. Whitehead
  • 24th July 2010 -
  • “The same flaw found in risk models that helped cause the financial meltdown is present in economic models invoked by ‘experts’. Anyone relying on these models for conclusions is deluded.”-Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Spitznagel
  • 23rd July 2010 -
  • “There is nothing in this world constant but inconstancy.” -Jonathan Swift
  • 22nd July 2010 -
  • “To understand what is going on we need a new paradigm. The currently prevailing paradigm, namely that financial markets tend towards equilibrium, is both false and misleading; our current troubles can be largely attributed to the fact that the international financial system has been developed on the basis of that paradigm.” -George Soros
  • 21st July 2010 -
  • “Everyone wants the riskless route to riches, but markets exist to make sure it can't exist for long.”-Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 20th July 2010 -
  • “Pursuing quality regardless of price is, in my opinion, one of the riskiest – rather than the safest – of investment approaches.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 19th July 2010 -
  • “"Great company today" doesn't mean "great company tomorrow," and it certainly doesn't mean "great investment."” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 17th July 2010 -
  • “People too easily forget that in determining the outcome of an investment, what you buy is no more important than the price you pay for it.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 16th July 2010 -
  • “The bear markets will come as a shock to the unsuspecting, demonstrating that, most of the time, the world doesn't change that much. For example, when you look at Siegel's 200-year straight-line stock market graph, no hiccup is visible in 1973-74. Try telling that to the equity investors who lost half their money.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 15th July 2010 -
  • “Just as standing frozen with fear is no way to move ahead, investors occasionally are issued a reminder that not worrying about danger can be just as foolish. Pursuit of return must be balanced against aversion to risk. The latter came to be accorded far too little attention as the 1990s wore on, but that seems to have been corrected. Where can we look now for good risk-adjusted returns?” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 14th July 2010 -
  • “Finally, we believe in investing defensively. That means worrying about what we may not know, about what can go wrong, and about losing money. If you're worried, you'll tend to build in more margin for error. Worriers make less when everything goes right, as in the tech bubble, but they also lose less – and stay in the game – when things return to earth. At Oaktree, we're guided more by one principle than any other: if we avoid the losers, the winners will take care of themselves.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 13th July 2010 -
  • “We think humility is essential, especially concerning the ability to know the future. Before we act on a forecast, we ask if there's good reason to think we're more right than the consensus view already embodied in prices. As to macro projections, we never assume we're superior. About under-researched companies and securities, we think it's possible to get an edge through hard work and skill.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 12th July 2010 -
  • “Closely related to contrarianism is skepticism. It's a simple concept, but it has great potential for keeping us out of trouble. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. That phrase is always heard after the losses have piled up – be it in dot-coms, portfolio insurance, "market neutral" funds or the "Asian miracle." Oaktree was founded on the conviction that free lunches do exist, but not for everyone, or where everyone's looking, or without hard work and superior skill. Skepticism needn't make you give up on superior risk-adjusted returns, but it should make you ask tough questions about the ease of accessing them.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 10th July 2010 -
  • “Check your own mindset – For me, mindset holds many of the keys to success. We at Oaktree believe strongly in contrarianism. As suggested in the paragraph above, that means leaning away from the direction chosen by most others. Sell when they're euphoric, and buy when they're afraid. Sell what they love, and buy what they hate.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 9th July 2010 -
  • “When investors are exuberant, as they were in 1999 and early 2000, it's dangerous. When the man on the street thinks stocks are a great idea and sure to produce profits, I'd watch out. When attitudes of this sort make for stock prices that assume the best and incorporate no fear, it's a formula for disaster.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
  • 8th July 2010 -
  • “Most "new paradigms" turn out to be just a new twist on an old theme. No technological development is so significant that its companies' stocks can be bought regardless of price. Most shortages – whether of commodities or securities – ease when supply inevitably rises to meet demand. And no fad lasts forever.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital
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